In “The Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace,” James Phillips of The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C., argues that the Bush administration “will be sorely tempted” in its last months to secure a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Rushing the process, though, is not likely to produce a satisfactory outcome. According to Mr. Phillips, the best that can probably be hoped for is an interim accord that would carry over to either a McCain or Obama administration.
Divisions on Both Sides
Mr. Phillips rightly points out that both parties to the conflict “…are too weak and divided…” to produce a lasting peace agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been plagued by scandal and by his handling of the summer 2006 war with Hezbollah, and Israel is trying now to determine who his successor will be. The Israeli government is too weak, and its future leadership too uncertain, to reach a final peace settlement.
The Palestinians are likewise divided, with the militant group Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah Party in control of the West Bank. Hamas is opposed to any deal with Israel, and Abbas cannot speak definitively for all Palestinians.
Recommendations
Mr. Phillips says that instead of trying to force a deal by January, when the Bush administration leaves office, the United States should do the following:
First, rule out the creation of a terrorist Palestinian state. Second, maintain international pressure on Hamas. Third, strengthen Palestinians opposed to terrorism. Fourth, press Egypt to do more to halt arms smuggling into Gaza. And finally, adopt a patient, incremental approach to peace negotiations, not force a rush to failure on final settlement issues.
Assessing the Recommendations
Mr. Phillips’ first recommendation essentially means that there will be no Palestinian state for the foreseeable future. Hamas and Fatah would have to come together and agree to work and live peaceably with Israel. Hamas is opposed to the existence of Israel and uses terrorism against Israeli civilians as well as attacks on Israeli military forces.
Maintaining international pressure on Hamas is likely to be one-sided, with the United States and Europe leading the effort. Iran provides support to Hamas, and is likely to offset any pressure applied by the west. Strengthening Palestinians opposed to terrorism will be difficult, at best, since loyalties are often vague, with Abbas’ own security forces under suspicion of aiding and conducting terrorist attacks. In other words, it’s hard to tell the good Palestinians from the bad Palestinians.
More pressure does need to be applied to Egypt, which, like many Arab governments nominally friendly with the United States, does what it must to appease Washington while taking great care not to offend the terrorists that may threaten it. Finally, Mr. Phillips is right in that a patient approach needs to be taken.
Conclusion
There are many complex issues involved in the Arab-Israeli dispute, and they will not be solved overnight. Negotiations will take years, and solutions may never materialize. Rushing to find an answer before leaving office would be a colossal mistake.
